Chairman's Message

It is estimated that by the year 2000 around one million Gulf nationals will enter the labour market. While there will be an estimated half a million new jobs, half of those seeking employment will have to fill jobs within the existing labour market, replacing expatriates in the workplace.

Currently, expatriate manpower makes up 90 per cent of the work force in the UAE, 82 per cent in Kuwait, 69 per cent in Saudi Arabia, 60 per cent in Bahrain and about the same in Oman. According to Business Monitor International, the population of the GCC will rise to over 39 million by 2010, with the number under nineteen rising to 21 million; an increase of eight million people in the labour market.

So how will the GCC States create employment opportunities for their fast growing populations? Saudi Arabia has over the last 15 months expelled over 750,000 foreign workers who had been violating Saudi Arabian residency regulations. It has also adopted new measures limiting the employment term of expatriates in the public sector to 10 years. Both these measures are aimed at creating 600,000 jobs for Saudi citizens by the year 2000. The Government has also told private companies to increase by five per cent a year the number of Saudi nationals on their payrolls.

But still, Saudi Arabia is finding it difficult to in substitute its own people for foreign workers. For like the rest of the Arab Gulf States, it has in the past employed its citizens in high paying government jobs. It is estimated that there are over two million Saudi citizens who are either employed by the government, or state run companies like the Saudi Aramco, while there are nearly 3.5 million foreign workers who are earning about US$400 a month (Dh1,458) doing jobs that Saudi citizens do not want.

All the GCC states are in the same predicament, they too like Saudi Arabia are running out of government jobs and increasingly looking to the private sector to share the burden. The situation is expected to become more critical in the future, since 40 per cent of the Gulf's population is under the age of 14, according to the International Monetary Fund.

In Oman, Ministry of Economy figures show that the number of Omani's working in the country's private sector rose by 32.9 per cent in the first six months of 1998, to 39,879, from 30,012 in the first six months of 1997; but, at the same time the number of foreign workers working in the private sector rose by 0.7 per cent up from 493,867 to 497,113 from June 1997 to June 1998.

Uniquely, bus drivers and petrol pump attendants are being replaced by Omanis. Other professions dominated by expatriates, such as tailoring, are being targeted and private companies are being urged to to recruit and train Omani nationals.

Here in the UAE, the Government is asking the private sector to hire more Emiratis to ensure that the estimated 200,000 young people entering the work force by the year 2006 will be able to find jobs. According to Ahmed Humaid Al Tayer, the UAE Minister of Communications, the government job nationalisation drive in the Emirates banking sector could be put into effect in other sectors to absorb the growing number of graduates.

According to Labour Ministry statistics, there are currently around 16,000 registered unemployed UAE nationals. If employment statistics are worrying now, the outlook for the future is grim, as by the Ministry's own projections 300,000 young nationals will graduate from college over the next decade.

What is needed is a government plan to ensure jobs for them in the private sector and that national and foreign business organisations should shoulder responsibility in this respect.

But in an interview in a local newspaper in October, Mr Al Tayer stated that the UAE had no intention of forcing the private sector to employ nationals, but that the government wanted the private sector to join with it in finding jobs for UAE citizens "on a basis of co-operation and understanding".

The most serious problem facing the country is our large expatriate population which makes up three quarters of the total population of the Emirates. To date the government has managed this problem well, but any shift in the balance of the population must be handled with caution, as some policies could have an adverse effect on the economy as a whole as evidenced by the expulsion of over 200,000 illegal workers in 1996 which led to temporary shortages in industrial sectors.

Given the governments commitment to developing a strong manufacturing base which in turn needs a large labour force, it is time that young people are prepared through education and training to take up jobs in the manufacturing sector of the economy, which they have in the past been unwilling to do, due to the availability of higher paid governments jobs. A shortage of nationals entering this sector, combined with the current policy of limiting the number of foreign workers in the federation, will limit the country on the manufacturing front, especially with membership of the World Trade Organisation on the horizon.

Given the UAE's low cost energy resources, planners are increasingly looking to develop a down-stream petrochemical industry as the only feasible option, as this is a high skilled rather than a labour intensive industrial sector and one that would allow greater employment opportunities for the Emirates growing national work force.

Manpower planners in the GCC believe that healthier economic growth would create conditions for ample employment opportunities by the year 2000. However the falling price of oil has dented the regions pattern of growth and most of the economies of the region are facing a downturn, which will hamper the regions ability to create enough jobs per year to absorb those entering the work force.

Furthermore, working conditions beyond the year 2000 will be tougher for citizens of the GCC, including longer working hours and salaries below those expected in the 1990's. With world trends favouring higher standards and specifications and quality assurance, employers in the GCC region will be looking for employees with the necessary qualification. We will need engineers, technicians, sales and marketing people, we will need local carpenters, plumbers, mechanics and machinists and people specialised in the hotel and leisure business. It is clear that there will be opportunities for our citizens, so let us ensure that we help them to make the changes in attitude necessary to take them up.

Khalaf Al Habtoor