As the world prepares to close the chapter on 2008 and looks forward to a new year and a new era, expectations have rarely been as high. Britain’s Queen Elizabeth referred to 1992 as her “annus horribilis” (Latin for “horrible year”) but most would agree that 2008 had little to commend it either. With the fervent hope that things can only get better, here is a round-up of world events in 2008 along with a brief analysis of what 2009 might bring.

New White House

Arguably, the most earth-shattering moment this year has been America’s November 4th presidential pick. President Elect Barack Obama will always go down in history as the first African-American commander-in-chief: his name whispered together with Martin Luther-King’s “dream” no matter what he achieves following his January 2009 inauguration. He is also America’s first inspirational leader within living memory, promising to change not only his own country but also the world. And indeed, many in trouble spots have pinned their hopes on Obama’s magic.

For the man, 2008 was a year of endless campaigning as he worked hard to get his message of change across. With the Republican competition raking the dirt to find something negative to pin on him, his was a difficult task. They said; he hobnobbed with a domestic terrorist, was a closet communist, and even spread rumours his American birth certificate was fake. In the end, nothing stuck, as Americans had only one thing in mind when they cast their ballots - the economy.

Prognosis: Next year, he will have to roll up his sleeves and honour his promise to change the world or else risk disappointing billions at home and abroad. Given his reputation of running a well-oiled tight ship and surrounding himself with the best, I believe he will, over time, regain the world’s respect for his nation.

Iraq Stabilizes

The US government credited ‘the surge’ as having diminished the insurgency but, in reality, it was its policy of negotiating with Sunni tribal leaders to get them on side and defend their areas from foreign extremists. However, the US could not prevent Turkish incursions into the Kurdish areas of Iraq to chase down Kurdish rebels.

In 2008, Iraq grew in prosperity and today its treasury has a healthy surplus while its bourse has been relatively immune to the worldwide economic tsunami.

To date, the Iraqi government, led by Nour Al-Maliki, has not signed the hydrocarbon bill giving foreign oil giants a foothold. It is also dragging its heels when it comes to agreeing a status of forces pact that would see US combat forces remaining in country until at least 2011. Moreover, America’s recent incursion into Syria resulting in the death of Syrian construction workers has infuriated Al-Maliki who allegedly was not told about the raid in advance.

Prognosis: One of Barack Obama’s main pre-election promises was to “get the US out of Iraq” within 18 months. However, he plans to do this in a controlled fashion and it is uncertain whether he is referring to combat troops or all troops and bases.

Afghanistan War Cannot be Won

There has been agreement among generals and diplomats on the ground that the war against the Taliban is not going well. At the same time, Afghanistan’s President Hamid Karzai is frustrated at the high numbers of innocents that have lost their lives due to American and NATO bombs. Such attacks are encouraging ordinary villagers to join up with the Taliban. Karzai has appealed to Taliban leader Mullah Omar to; “return home under guarantees of safety to bring peace to Afghanistan,” but while the Pentagon supports talks with insurgents, it insists there is no reconciliation with Mullah Omar.

Prognosis: Pre-election, Obama had promised to send more US troops into Afghanistan and to persuade NATO member countries to do much more. However, he is likely to support Karzai’s reconciliation efforts once in office.

Volatile Pakistan

In September, Benazir Bhutto’s silver-tongued widower, Asif Zardari, was inaugurated as Pakistan’s new president, replacing the unpopular Pervez Musharraf perceived as too close to the Bush administration. But the celebrations were short-lived as pro-Western Zardari has inherited Musharraf’s balancing act between pleasing his own people on the one hand and the US on the other. He is still defying public sentiment by refusing to reinstate sacked judges, for instance. Pakistan is hurting financially and without massive US and IMF hand-outs is in danger of becoming a failed state in possession of a nuclear arsenal.

Both neighbouring Afghanistan and the US complain Pakistan allows terrorists to operate from its north-western territory to launch attacks on Afghans and US forces; while Pakistan has complained that US cross-border strikes leave too many innocent victims.

Prognosis: On Pakistan, Obama has been talking tough. He has advocated US combat missions into Pakistani territory to take out Al Qaeda safe havens whether or not Pakistan agrees. In light of the economy, however, and the still unpopular war in Iraq it is unlikely that Obama will act on this threat that would risk a major US-Pakistan confrontation.

Iran: Still Defiant

Efforts by the US and its Western allies to persuade Iran to quit enriching uranium have come to nothing. Although the UN Security Council passed resolutions sanctioning Iran for its intransigency, they were virtually toothless due to the non-cooperation of veto-holding Russia and China.

Prognosis: US-Iranian relations are likely to warm up during an Obama presidency, which has been openly welcomed by Tehran. The President elect has verbalized his willingness to sit around a table with the Iranian leadership without preconditions but this is a step that is violently opposed by Israel. Given the constraints on the new man in the White House by America’s central ‘Israel First’ body politic, it is doubtful that he will be able to follow his heart on this one without alienating the political establishment, America’s allies and public opinion.

Israel-Palestine

During 2008, the peace process has virtually stagnated despite grandiose promises by the Bush administration that by the end of the year there would be a Palestinian state. Various factors have contributed to the stale mate; George Bush’s inaction, Fatah-Hamas infighting, Israel’s continued settlement expansion, the ousting of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert due to allegations of corruption, and the inability of the new Kadima leader Tzipi Livni to form a coalition government.

Prognosis: In October, it looked as though a new window of opportunity was opening up, triggered by an Obama White House and a new comparatively dovish Israeli leader. However, Livni’s failure to bring the hard line Shas Party on side over disagreements relating to the future of Jerusalem means she is forced to call a snap election. If she wins, peace will have a chance. If her main rival the hawkish former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu persuades Israel to take him back, the process will be dead in the water for a long time to come.
 

Resurgent Russia

In May, Vladimir Putin’s protégé Dmitri Medvedev was sworn-in as Russia’s new president, and, as pre-arranged, he appointed Putin as his Prime Minister. A few months later, in August, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Georgia in retaliation for the latter’s military incursion into South Ossetia, and was criticised by the US and its allies for so doing. This year saw Russia on the offensive. US-Russian relations are at a low and Russia has recently threatened to deploy missiles on the EU’s doorstep in response to Washington’s proposed missile shield based in Poland and the Czech Republic.

Prognosis: Unlike most nations around the world, Russia appeared to be unimpressed by Obama’s election win. Most Russian newspapers remained low key on the subject while the government’s response was cool. Russia feels it has been severely burned by the power-hungry Bush administration and will be naturally suspicious about the newcomer. It is, therefore, primarily up to Obama to reinvigorate the US-Russian détente and to reassure Moscow that it is not a future US target. This does not, however, look likely as Obama has not opposed Bush’s missile shield and favours efforts by former Soviet republics to join NATO.

Trouble in Africa

In July, the International Criminal Court sought to indict the Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir for alleged war crimes in Darfur. However, judges have asked the chief prosecutor to come up with more evidence before they issue a warrant for his arrest. The Arab League and the African Union have made statements opposing any such indictment.

In Zimbabwe, a power-sharing deal between President Robert Mugabe and opposition leader Morgan Tsvangiri remains in deadlock over the allocation of cabinet posts. The most pressing African issue is the conflict in the Congo between Congolese forces and Tutsi rebels, which the UN warns could engulf the entire region including Rwanda, if left unattended.

Prognosis: Britain’s Gordon Brown has thus far led the charge in Africa. He is a vehement opponent of the Mugabe regime and has warned that British and/or European troops may be sent to the Congo as peacekeepers. On Darfur, he is working closely with Qatar to persuade President Al-Bashir to engage in talks. In light of Obama’s roots, it is likely Brown will now have a close ally to effect change in this troubled continent.

Financial Crisis

The market meltdown and the banking crisis are reminiscent of 1939. This year, 2008, will similarly be viewed as a global shock when boom suddenly turned to gloom. With most Western economies teetering on recession, unpredictable stock indices, growing unemployment and burgeoning home repossessions, governments have had to freeze their capitalist dogma and step in to prevent mass bankruptcies.

Prognosis: There will be a lot more pain before there is any gain. 2009 promises to be a tough year for just about everybody with the IMF predicting that some of the world’s wealthiest nations will be battling against recession.

Gone But Not Forgotten

Finally, let us remember the fine people who have left us and who will leave a hole in our hearts in 2009 and the years to come. In July, one of Arab cinema’s best-loved sons, Yousef Shahine, drew his last breath at the age of 82. In August, the beloved Palestinian poet, Mahmoud Darwish, who railed against the occupation of his land, slipped away. He was just 67.

2008 was also the year when we lost; actress Deborah Kerr, best known for her role in “The King and I”, Charlton Heston of Ben-Hur fame, Heath Ledger star of the critically-acclaimed “Brokeback Mountain”, chess-champion Bobby Fischer, science-fiction writer Arthur C. Clarke, actor/race-car driver and philanthropist Paul Newman, musician Isaac Hayes, and the father of transcendental meditation, Maharishi Mahesh Yogi.

May they, and 2008, rest in peace!