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There may be a new titular head in the Kremlin but the Jury’s
still out as to who has the final say on running the country.
Does the newly inaugurated president Dmitri Medvedev have the
game as well as the name, or does his former boss and mentor
Vladimir Putin, to whom President Medvedev has awarded the post
of Prime Minister, still pull the strings? Some analysts believe
the pair plans to share power for the next 20 years by shifting
it back and forth. Others believe Mr. Medvedev may be in the
process of transitioning from Putin’s man into his own. So far,
though, the difference between the two men is style rather than
substance.
Arguably the most popular leader in Russia’s history, Vladimir
Putin is a hard act to follow. Forced to relinquish his
presidency due to constitutional constraints on its duration (no
more than two successive terms), it’s by no means sure he has
relinquished his powers. Nevertheless, for all intents and
purposes President Medvedev holds the reins while Prime Minister
Putin has the number two job.
When a sceptical journalist from Le Monde asked Putin the
question everyone wants answered ‘who is Russia’s real leader?’
the former president answered definitively and unassumingly.
“There is no ambiguity. The president, without question, has the
final word, and the president, today, is Mr. Medvedev,” he said.
“Russia is a presidential republic. We are not modifying the key
role of the head of state in the political system…I am a humble
servant that is concerned with economic and social affairs”.
The role of humble servant is certainly not one that suits Mr.
Putin and it was one that was questioned when, as Prime
Minister, he was received by the French President Nicolas
Sarkozy as though he was still Russia’s head-of-state. Some
observers wonder whether Putin will continue the prime
ministerial tradition of reporting weekly to the president and
if he will reverently hang Medvedev’s portrait on the wall of
his new office. “I don’t need to bow to a portrait. There are
other ways of building a relationship,” Putin is quoted as
saying.
When Medvedev was asked whether Mr. Putin would be a
transitional premier or whether he would be a fixture throughout
his presidential terms, his response was diplomatic. “You know,
I think we have a good alliance to solve the complicated
problems faced by Russia,” he said. “We will work for as long as
is needed to achieve the goals which stand before us”.
In theory, Medvedev could decide to sack his Prime Minister at
any time but if he did, he would have to answer to a public that
is still largely devoted to Mr. Putin and grateful to him for
returning Russia to the status of a main international player as
well as increasing GDP six-fold.
It’s still early days and Medvedev hasn’t yet had the
opportunity of asserting himself on the global arena let alone
rocking the boat of his predecessor’s policies. His personality
may be slightly warmer than Putin’s and his veneer somewhat
softer but until now his foreign agenda has been strictly on
message.
When it comes Russia’s relationship with the US, which has been
strained in recent years over NATO’s expansionism, US
recognition of Kosovo’s self-declared independence and an
American missile defence shield Washington’s wants stationed in
Europe, Medvedev appears to be adopting a ‘wait-and-see
approach’ to the US presidential election.
In the meantime Russian and American officials put on a friendly
show for public consumption while everyone acknowledges that the
opportunities for a real and lasting détente are diminishing
and, instead, both sides have settled for a distinctly chilly
peace.
He’s probably won few friends in Washington by suggesting the
Russian rouble could stand as an alternative reserve currency to
the weak dollar within Russia and the CIS region. And whereas
Russia’s reserves were “mainly concentrated in dollars” the
country now uses the “Euro practically on a parity basis with
the US dollar” and “partially using other currencies as well, in
particular, sterling”. President Medvedev regrets that “the
entire international financial system hinges on the state of
things in the dollar zone”.
Moreover, during his speech at the St. Petersburg Economic
Forum, Medvedev blamed the US for the global economic crisis,
saying, this occurred partly due to the “aggressive financial
policies of the world’s biggest economy led not only to the
failure of corporations. The majority of people on the planet
have grown poorer”. He said the gap between America’s formal
role in the world economy and its real capabilities was one of
the key reasons for the crisis”.
Moscow’s relationship with Europe is less frosty. In June,
President Medvedev told Reuters that Russia seeks a brief,
legally-binding “serious” pact with the EU that would affirm
that Russia is a part of Europe, preventing trade and business
issues from being affected by political disputes. Putin has long
wanted Russia to enjoy a greater political reach within Europe
but, for its part, the EU fears that Moscow flush with oil/gas
revenue will use its ever more precious energy resources to
increase its political and economic clout.
On internal matters, Medvedev is keen to lower taxes, facilitate
the owning of private property, cutting red tape, defending
personal freedoms and fighting corruption.
With hardly a chink of light separating their policies, Medvedev
and Putin both have simple backgrounds. Whereas Putin was the
son of a factory worker and a naval conscript, Medvedev’s
parents were university professors who lived in a 40 square
meter apartment in a poor district of St. Petersburg (then
Leningrad). Growing up, he said he dreamed of having enough
money to buy jeans as well as Deep Purple and Pink Floyd
records.
Both men are happily married parents, fitness freaks and pet
owners (Putin has a dog, Medvedev a cat). Both graduated from
Leningrad State University but there the similarity ends. Putin
joined the KGB and rose up through the ranks, while Medvedev’s
career path meandered through academia and politics until he was
appointed chairman of Gazprom.
In the run-up to the presidential elections Putin and Medvedev
campaigned together under banners reading: “Together we will be
victorious”. Thanks to Putin’s following winning was easy. But
the hard part is still to come.
Will they always get along? Will there be a power play? And what
happens if Medvedev wants to change the script? Are they playing
musical chairs and, if so, when will they swap? Those are
questions only time and the vagaries of fate can answer.
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